Figures never lie, but liars often figure

I want to say here at the outset that I am not a liar. I just needed a catchy title.

I read an article this week reporting the result of a poll taken here in the United States. One statement in particular caught my attention. When asked "Have you a friend or family member who has died of COVID-19?" a response of "yes" was given by 29% of the respondents to the poll.

This number seemed rather large to me and remembering that President Ronald Reagan once said on another topic, "Trust, but verify," I resolved to do a little research of my own. Here are some facts I learned:

1. The number of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States is 600,000 to date. (Note. This figure may be higher than the actual number since in our ever-changing national discussion about COVID-19 little differentiation has been made between those who died OF it and those who died WITH it, which are not the same thing at all, not at all. --RWP)

2. The population of the United States in round figures is 332,000,000 as of the 2020 census.

3. The average number of persons per household in the U.S. is 2.53 as of 2020. The "number of persons per household" category has been getting smaller in recent years.

I began my figuring. The total U.S. population (332,000,000) divided by the number of deaths from COVID-19 to date in the United States (600,000) means that 1 in every 553 Americans has died of COVID-19 to date.

Despite the number of "friends" some people have on Facebook and other social media sites, I think it unlikely that the average person (you, me) has 553 people in his or her circle of family and friends. Acquaintances, yes. Friends, no.

Since 29% of the respondents to the poll said a friend or family member had died of COVID-19, I needed to pare down the pool accordingly. Twenty-nine percent of the U.S. population of 332,000,000 is 96,280,000 people, so the FAFLRDTC (Family And Friend Loss Rate Due To COVID-19) is not 1 in 553 but only 1 in 160 (that is, 96,280,000 divided by 600,000).

That is more believable but still a pretty large group of friends and family.

But since nobody (or very few) lives in a vacuum but in households, we can do some more figuring and determine that the number of households among the 96,280,000 people (29% of the U.S. population) who reported having lost a friend of family member to COVID-19) live in 33,055,000 households (96,280,000 divided by 2.53), so the FAFLRDTCPHH (Family And Friend Loss Rate Due To COVID-19 Per Household) becomes 1 in 55, a much more believable number even if the respondents to the poll do not map exactly to the make-up of the overall population (in other words, if the poll is biased).

There is one important exception to my findings, however. If you are from Tennessee, none of this applies to you. For example, our pastor's wife's mother, who is from Tennessee, is one of 27 siblings. Given all the cousins and in-laws, our pastor's wife may have 553 in her family alone without even including any friends.

We ourselves (Mrs. RWP and I) had two friends who died from COVID-19 and at least 10 more who had it but survived.

What has been your experience? Have you had friends or family members who died of COVID-19?

I would like to mention in closing that since the pandemic started a year and a half ago we have moved, for good or ill, from being told "everybody is going to die" to "the survival rate is 99%."