I want to say here at the outset that I am not a liar. I just needed a catchy title.
I read an article this week reporting the result of a poll taken here in the United States. One statement in particular caught my attention. When asked "Have you a friend or family member who has died of COVID-19?" a response of "yes" was given by 29% of the respondents to the poll.
This number seemed rather large to me and remembering that President Ronald Reagan once said on another topic, "Trust, but verify," I resolved to do a little research of my own. Here are some facts I learned:
1. The number of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States is 600,000 to date. (Note. This figure may be higher than the actual number since in our ever-changing national discussion about COVID-19 little differentiation has been made between those who died OF it and those who died WITH it, which are not the same thing at all, not at all. --RWP)
2. The population of the United States in round figures is 332,000,000 as of the 2020 census.
3. The average number of persons per household in the U.S. is 2.53 as of 2020. The "number of persons per household" category has been getting smaller in recent years.
I began my figuring. The total U.S. population (332,000,000) divided by the number of deaths from COVID-19 to date in the United States (600,000) means that 1 in every 553 Americans has died of COVID-19 to date.
Despite the number of "friends" some people have on Facebook and other social media sites, I think it unlikely that the average person (you, me) has 553 people in his or her circle of family and friends. Acquaintances, yes. Friends, no.
Since 29% of the respondents to the poll said a friend or family member had died of COVID-19, I needed to pare down the pool accordingly. Twenty-nine percent of the U.S. population of 332,000,000 is 96,280,000 people, so the FAFLRDTC (Family And Friend Loss Rate Due To COVID-19) is not 1 in 553 but only 1 in 160 (that is, 96,280,000 divided by 600,000).
That is more believable but still a pretty large group of friends and family.
But since nobody (or very few) lives in a vacuum but in households, we can do some more figuring and determine that the number of households among the 96,280,000 people (29% of the U.S. population) who reported having lost a friend of family member to COVID-19) live in 33,055,000 households (96,280,000 divided by 2.53), so the FAFLRDTCPHH (Family And Friend Loss Rate Due To COVID-19 Per Household) becomes 1 in 55, a much more believable number even if the respondents to the poll do not map exactly to the make-up of the overall population (in other words, if the poll is biased).
There is one important exception to my findings, however. If you are from Tennessee, none of this applies to you. For example, our pastor's wife's mother, who is from Tennessee, is one of 27 siblings. Given all the cousins and in-laws, our pastor's wife may have 553 in her family alone without even including any friends.
We ourselves (Mrs. RWP and I) had two friends who died from COVID-19 and at least 10 more who had it but survived.
What has been your experience? Have you had friends or family members who died of COVID-19?
I would like to mention in closing that since the pandemic started a year and a half ago we have moved, for good or ill, from being told "everybody is going to die" to "the survival rate is 99%."
I havent known anyone to even catch it but then I am in Austrakia where we have had few cases.
ReplyDeleteA Russian friend of mine lost her previously young and healthy brother last year. He had a "flu" and recovered poorly then had a very rapid onset of a kidney issue. We suspect he was one of the first covid victims and she was distraught at being unable to join her family for the funeral.
27 children in one family? the mind boggles
kylie, besides the pastor’s wife’s mother (one of 27), there was a family with 18 children in our own neighborhood back when my children were in school back in the 1970s and 1980s. Almost every year, another child in that family would graduate from high school.
DeleteI’m surprised you haven’t known anyone who had COVID-19. It seems to be everywhere here.
I do not know anyone who has died of Covid 19 nor do I know anyone who has had it.
ReplyDeleteRachel, our daughter, our son, and our daughter-in-law all came down with COVID-19 in January of this year. They are all in their 50s. Our friend Tom Brown (69) and our friend Rita Ramsey (86) both died of it. We know several other people personally who came down with it and survived !Jim, Vicki, Ardith, Tammi, I could go on at length).
ReplyDeleteI've lost count of people I know who have had it - at least 12 including cousins and a nephew, and a colleague of a close relative who died.
ReplyDeleteTasker, ditto in the “lost count” department. I listed several in my reply to Rachel. Four more have come to mind: Don, Linda, Elaine, and Noah. And Noah is one of our grandsons. How could I have lost track of him?
ReplyDeleteI have friends and family members who have contracted COVID. I have family members who died of COVID. Where do I fit in your calculations?
ReplyDeleteEmma, I am sorry for your losses. You are definitely part of the 29% who answered “yes” and the size of your household is smaller than 2.53 people.
DeleteI have known many who have had Covid. Just this past month two people in our very small town I live in died from the Delta variant of Covid. Both were under 50 and one was a mother of young children. The Delta variant has spread like crazy here and as of today our mask mandate is back on.
ReplyDeleteBonnie, but were those two in your small town who died personal friends of yours, though, or just names you read in a newspaper or heard on the radio that you had something (your town) in common with?
DeleteBob, I know two people who have died in the last couple of years. It's to be expected at our age. Neither died of Covid, one might have as he was squashed by a tractor and had trouble breathing, who wouldn't with five tonnes of machine impaling him to the ground, the other had a brain tumour. I know which death I would choose but we don't get a choice.
ReplyDeleteI decided at the start of this nonsense to only take note of deaths and ICU admissions. Cases mean nothing unless folk are ill. Our health service is middling to crap and anyone with any money goes privately. This is the first time in many years I can recall that our health service has not been within days of being overwhelmed. Our local health businesses or surgeries have been all but shut.
Our undertakers are just going along steady, they get a bit behind in winter but we haven't got plague pits or crematoria running 24/7.
Numbers are useful and I use them all the time but they have to reflect and be tested against reality.
"Cases mean nothing unless folk are ill."
DeleteMaybe I'm misunderstanding your point, but here is what it brought to mind. People who contracted the original virus commonly spread it to two or three other people, while those with the Delta Variant spread it, on average, to 5-9 others, whether they themselves even know they have it. My point is that the fact that they have it is meaningful because of the danger they pose.
Adrian, we are now hearing with the.new Delta new India variant that ICUs are filling back up quickly with younger adults who are unvaccinated. and that there are shortages of doctors and nurses because of the burnout that has occurred in those professions in the last year. I guess we are in round 2 or 3 or whatever now.
ReplyDeleteI meant to say “new Delta nee India variant” but the iPhone had its own ideas.
Delete"Liars figure"? It seems to me that these results might not be the result of deception, but rather who was polled, where they lived, how much overlap there was in their social circles, and the difficulty of clearly defining who they could count as "friends or family" (someone once surprised me by calling me his best friend, because, while I enjoyed his company, I had only regarded him as a friendly acquaintance).
ReplyDeleteSnowbrush, exactly. I couldn’t have said it better myself. You nailed it.
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